UGA vs USC: the hypocrisy of the BCS pollsters

It's been pointed out to me that while USC and UGA are both unbeaten since losing three weeks ago, the Trojans have moved all the way back up to no. 4 in the BCS standings, i.e. the top-ranked one-loss team, while the Bulldogs have actually dropped one spot each of the last two weeks. Let's take a look at the hypocrisy involved.

Examine the following link:
http://www.bcsguru.com/2008_bcs_standings_tracking.htm

• UGA and USC were separated by one spot after week 4. USC was no. 1 in the BCS and UGA was no. 2
• In week 5, USC lost on the road as a 24-pt favorite to Oregon State, while UGA lost at home as a 7-pt favorite to Alabama. That resulted in UGA dropping to no. 7 in the BCS and USC dropping to No. 9.
• In week 6, USC won at home over Oregon while UGA was idle. USC moved up to no. 7 in the BCS while UGA fell down to no. 8.
• In week 7, USC won by 28 at home over Arizona State (while being favored by 27.5 pts), while UGA won by 12 at home over Tennessee (while being favored by 12.5 pts). So, each team did exactly what the smartest folks, i.e. Vegas expected, yet the BCS standings moved USC UP 3 spots, while again UGA moved DOWN 1 spot.

The movements of UGA DOWN while USC has gone UP in the last two weeks are extremely out of line with the reality that has occurred on the field. Namely, that the two teams have done exactly what they should have done (and were expected to do by the oddsmakers in Vegas) since losing in week 5.

This has all set up UGA to be left on the outside again, should they run the table because they would be behind both the Big 12 champion AND USC (and I don’t want to even discuss the disaster that is Penn State going unbeaten). The set-up has occurred now. If it isn’t pointed out now, the hypocrisy won’t be debatable in three weeks time after UGA has beaten Vandy, LSU and UF. It will just be accepted that USC is better than UGA b/c they were 5 spots ahead of them in the BCS and that’s too long of ways to jump when USC is beating up on the poor weaklings of the Pac 10.

Moron of the Day = Me

I am the moron of the day (not to be confused with "Reasoning with a Moron") for the following reasons:

1. Doubting that Matt Ryan was the right selection at No. 3 in the NFL Draft; doubting that he should be starting in his rookie year; doubting that he had the talent and arm strength to make the key throws in clutch moments; and doubting that Ryan would ever win an NFL playoff game. At this point, the only one of those statements on which I am not 100% wrong is the last one (winning a playoff game). And I'm man enough to acknowledge that it too will probably fall by the wayside in due time. I whiffed on Matt Ryan's talent and humbly request permission to join the Matt Ryan bandwagon, if there is still room for me (and if they will have me).
   


2. Thinking that Sam Baker would struggle at left tackle. Baker has been the Falcons best offensive player through six games. Period. This is not debatable, as he has solidified Atlanta's offensive line, kept Ryan from getting sacked or pressured and is the player behind whom the Falcons run the most often and the most successfully. It is a toss-up right now as to which Falcons jersey I want to purchase more: Baker's or Ryan's. In April, if you'd told me that I would ever own a Falcons' jersey with the No. 72 on it that was not Glenn Dorsey's, I probably would have had you committed to an insane asylum.
   


3. Questioning the credentials of Mike Smith. I'll wholeheartedly admit that I was less than thrilled when the Falcons whiffed on Bill Parcells and ended up with Smith. But Smith has been fantastic thus far. The professionalism and class that Atlanta plays with is such a refreshing breath of fresh air.
   


4. Holding back on embracing Falcons Fever. I'm got a fever and the only cure is ... and you thought I was going to say More Cowbell. Nope, The only cure is more Falcons football. I hope there is room on the Falcons bandwagon for me.

The wave grows stronger

Winning a national title in college football takes talent, coaching, leadership, luck and many other things. But one of the main things it takes is the support of the mainstream media. Not that you'll ever hear ESPN or Sports Illustrated or CBS or any of the other media outlets covering college football admit it.

When your sport ends its season with a beauty pageant (the BCS) instead of a head-to-head resolution (a playoff), it's inevitable that the people presenting the pageant have to be in support of the contestants. That's why it is so important for Georgia's football team to be starting the season with such acclaim and expectations. Doing so allows the members of the media to not only wrap their arms around the idea of UGA in the national title game far in advance, but to tell you at the end of the year that Georgia is a worthy contestant in the pageant. Of course, the telling you is based on those same media outlets placing Georgia in the pageant to begin with back in August.

Don't believe me. Take this anecdote from last season as your prime example. On December 1, 2007, UGA entered the day ranked no. 4 in the nation, having won six games in a row, including knocking off highly-ranked Florida 42-30, destroying Auburn by 25 points, and holding a potent Kentucky team to 13 points. The Dawgs watched that day as two of the three teams ranked ahead of them lost. But did Georgia move up to the no. 2 spot in the country and secure a berth in the final beauty pageant of the season? Of course not.

Because the media members who throw the party didn't deem Georgia to be worthy of competing in their beauty pageant. Sure, she might have been the late bloomer who ended up with the best figure in the class, but she hadn't started the season on their radar. That sin, the sin of the national media not noticing her until too late caused the Bulldogs to miss the final pageant last year, getting passed over for an LSU team that lost twice in the six-week period preceding December 1.

Care to guess where LSU started the season in 2007? As a friend of mine in the mainstream media said to me last year on December 2, "How could I not choose LSU? They've been there all season long, while Georgia just got hot late." That's right. All season long. As in, I, mr. high and mighty national media scribe, ranked LSU No. 2 in the preseason while I only had Georgia at no. 12.

Really?!? Are you serious?

The rationale for placing one two-loss team that is 4-2 over its last two six games in the beauty pageant final game over another two-loss team is that the former team has been there all season long. That's a rationale that is flawed in so many ways, the most obvious is that the mainstream media placed LSU at the top of the polls at season's beginning and Georgia in the middle of the pack, so they are simply validating their initial selection by choosing LSU over Georgia for the title game.

Validation of their own opinions. It's what no college football writer will ever talk to you about, but it's the dirtiest little secret around for those who support the current system and are against a playoff. The current system allows college football media members to tell you who the frontrunners are to be in the pageant and then they select the final contestants from a field including everyone. Do you really think those that weren't at the top of the polls to begin the season have a chance? If you believe that, you probably think that Michigan is actually the no. 24 team in the country.

Starting on December 3, 2007, Mark Richt began campaigning to be the number 1 team in the country preseason in 2008. He saw how his 2007 team fought against a stacked deck and made certain that would not be the case in 2008. He took advantage of an overmatched Hawaii team and pummeled them and Colt Brennan into the Superdome turf. And then look what he had to say immediately after the game.

"We wanted to win the national championship, we thought we had an outside shot at that, but it's still a great honor to finish in the top five and win 11 games," said Richt. "We're going to return a very good football team [next season]. ... I think we'll have a chance to make a run at it."

And from that statement on, Richt has actively made it a point to seek out a high preseason ranking. It's worked too. The coaches poll, Sports Illustrated, and now, posssibly, ESPN Magazine, have placed Georgia at the top of their preseason polls. By doing so, the media has created a wave and a resume for the Bulldogs. So long as Georgia wins its games, everything will fall into place.

You might think that is always the case, but 2007 certainly proved otherwise. In the end, you've got to be a contestant in the pageant to have a chance to win, and the Bulldogs are finally a contestant thanks to the mainstream media telling us they are.

Thanks for doing us so many favors, media scribes. Maybe someday you'll be so kind as to let the teams themselves determine at season's end who the prettiest of them actually is.

What you'll get here ...

• My sports opinions, most notably on the Atlanta sports teams, the local college teams, the SEC, the ACC and everything else that catches my interest.
• Statistics that support my sports opinions.
• Anything else that supports my sports opinions.
• If I must admit that I am wrong, don't expect me to be happy about it.
• Statistics and other evidence that expose fallacies in sports (or at least that my buddies are wrong on occasion).
• The award-winning "Reasoning with a Moron" blog posts (the first of which shall be part of this post).
• Ramblings about my life and my family.
• Links to articles, videos, blogs and other stuff which makes me laugh or might prove interesting/useful.

That's a good start. Who knows where this thing will go, but at least I've got an outlet now for my thoughts.

Reasoning with a Moron:

As always the names and identities of the Morons have been changed. Quoting Ricky Bobby in Talledega Nights, "That just happened!" ... And now, you can share in my desire to bang my head against a wall after the following conversation.

-----Original Message-----
From: Today's Moron
Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2008 9:16 AM
To: Atlanta Sports Genius
Subject: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=smithhawks-080809

I thought you might enjoy this story from ESPN.com. J-Smooth is da man and gets props here

----- Original Message -----
From: Atlanta Sports Genius
Sent: 08/09/2008 09:38 AM
To: Today's Moron
Subject: RE: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

I fail to see it. The article applauds the Hawks for matching the offer sheet.

-----Original Message-----
From: Today's Moron
Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2008 9:44 AM
To: Atlanta Sports Genius
Subject: Re: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

It also rates him higher than Deng and Iguadola in a major statistical category

----- Original Message -----
From: Atlanta Sports Genius
Sent: 08/09/2008 09:44 AM
To: Today's Moron
Subject: RE: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

Smith's position is power forward and Horford's position is power forward. If we play both of them at the same time, we have no center. How does that rate in your book?

----- Original Message -----
From: Today's Moron
To: Atlanta Sports Genius
Sent: Sat Aug 09 10:17:50 2008
Subject: Re: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

Your logic makes no sense. Their positions have nothing to do with us not getting a center. We need to get rid of Stinky Marvin, he is a waste of a starter and get a real center as a result.

----- Original Message -----
From: Atlanta Sports Genius
Sent: 08/09/2008 10:24 AM
To: Today's Moron
Subject: Re: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

Today's Moron, if you think Smith can play small forward, you need to be in a mental hospital.

----- Original Message -----
From: Today's Moron
To: Atlanta Sports Genius
Sent: Sat Aug 09 10:43:09 2008
Subject: Re: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

He can definitely play small forward. He is super quick and athletic. He would certainly be a true small forward (3) on at least 20 times in the NBA.

----- Original Message -----
From: Atlanta Sports Genius
Sent: 08/09/2008 11:27 AM
To: Today's Moron
Subject: Re: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

Super quick and athletic do not make one a small forward. You have to be able to shoot from outside 5 feet. Consistently.

-----Original Message-----
From: Today's Moron
Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2008 11:53 AM
To: Atlanta Sports Genius
Subject: Re: ESPN.com: Ford: Hawks smart to match $58 million offer for Smith

You are right and that is why Smith more than qualifies. He is a bonafide shhoter from minimum of 15 ans beyond, mark it down and everything else that has been aforementioned.

----- Original Message -----
From: Atlanta Sports Genius
Sent: 08/09/2008 01:42 PM
To: Today's Moron
Subject: Josh Smith CANNOT shoot beyond 5 feet

Today's Moron,
Just once I'd like you to actually be right so I wouldn't have to bitchslap you repeatedly (I've got the hand ready, please present me with your face). In regards to your contention that Josh Smith is "a bonafide shooter from minimum of 15 feet and beyond, mark it down" (quoting you from the previous email), let's turn to 82games.com, which keeps incredibly detailed statistics on all things NBA.

So, last season 52% of Josh Smith's shots were inside shots (defined by 82games.com as either close-range, a dunk or a tip -- in other words, shots taken within 5 feet). On those shots, he is a respectable 61.8%, placing him in the middle of the NBA among players who took 100 or more FG attempts last year. (see: http://www.82games.com/FGSORT12.HTM)

However, roughly 48% of Smith's jump shots are taken from outside close range, i.e. beyond 5 feet. It is there where Smith is a fucking disaster.

Last year, he took over 39% of his shots from outside close range but inside the 3-pt line. Care to guess how he fared? Come on, Today's Moron, take a guess. ... Ok, give up. It's 29.1%. That's right, less than 3 out of every 10 jump shots he takes inside the arc fail actually go in the basket. By way of comparison, that ranks him 242 out of 249 qualifiers, i.e. people who took 100 or more FG attempts this past NBA season. (http://www.82games.com/FGSORT7.HTM) That's right, I said 242 out of 249. I believe the term for that is shitty and they spell that J-S-M-O-O-V-E.

Outside of the arc it is even worse. (I know, that's truly impossible to believe) Among the 210 NBA players who took 50 or more 3-pt shots last season, Smith's 3-pt FG % is ranked 205th. His 25.3% shooting from 3-pt range came on more than 8% of the FG attempts he hoisted. (http://www.82games.com/FGSORT2.HTM) Again, I am pretty sure we know how to spell this, N-O-T A S-M-A-L-L F-O-R-W-A-RD.

Remember what I said all along -- the Hawks would be better off letting Smith go, playing Horford at his natural power forward position and signing a center and another small forward. You can't have a team where Horford and Smith play on the floor at the same time which is successful. It's not possible. It forces Horford to play out of position and doesn't allow for him to develop into the All-Star power forward he can and should be.

This reality check has been brought to you by Statistics, making the world a more logical place one example at a time.

----- Original Message -----
From: Today's Moron
Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2008 2:10 PM
To: Atlanta Sports Genius
Subject: Re: Josh Smith CANNOT shoot beyond 5 feet

Stats, Stats, Stats!!!! That is your whole life and basis of every argument. You need to separate yourself from that attorney mentality. There is more to life than stats and numbers. As far as I remember, he makes them in the clutch anbd when it counts, so you are wrong once again. You are just bitter plain and simple that not only did the Hawks resign him, but he got the huge $$$$ that I knew he would get and you have claimed all along he would not get, boo yah, Atlanta Sports Genius you are wrong once again. They paid the man that deserved it. He is the best Hawks pick ever outside of a lottery (I.e) in the past 20 years or so. He repeatey made them in big games against the Lakers and Celtics. Atlanta Sports Genius, the truth hurts, J-Smooth was rewarded for his amazing and talented ability despite what you thought!