Wednesday, October 15, 2008

UGA vs USC: the hypocrisy of the BCS pollsters

It's been pointed out to me that while USC and UGA are both unbeaten since losing three weeks ago, the Trojans have moved all the way back up to no. 4 in the BCS standings, i.e. the top-ranked one-loss team, while the Bulldogs have actually dropped one spot each of the last two weeks. Let's take a look at the hypocrisy involved.

Examine the following link:
http://www.bcsguru.com/2008_bcs_standings_tracking.htm

  • UGA and USC were separated by one spot after week 4. USC was no. 1 in the BCS and UGA was no. 2
  • In week 5, USC lost on the road as a 24-pt favorite to Oregon State, while UGA lost at home as a 7-pt favorite to Alabama. That resulted in UGA dropping to no. 7 in the BCS and USC dropping to No. 9.
  • In week 6, USC won at home over Oregon while UGA was idle. USC moved up to no. 7 in the BCS while UGA fell down to no. 8.
  • In week 7, USC won by 28 at home over Arizona State (while being favored by 27.5 pts), while UGA won by 12 at home over Tennessee (while being favored by 12.5 pts). So, each team did exactly what the smartest folks, i.e. Vegas expected, yet the BCS standings moved USC UP 3 spots, while again UGA moved DOWN 1 spot.

The movements of UGA DOWN while USC has gone UP in the last two weeks are extremely out of line with the reality that has occurred on the field. Namely, that the two teams have done exactly what they should have done (and were expected to do by the oddsmakers in Vegas) since losing in week 5.

This has all set up UGA to be left on the outside again, should they run the table because they would be behind both the Big 12 champion AND USC (and I don’t want to even discuss the disaster that is Penn State going unbeaten). The set-up has occurred now. If it isn’t pointed out now, the hypocrisy won’t be debatable in three weeks time after UGA has beaten Vandy, LSU and UF. It will just be accepted that USC is better than UGA b/c they were 5 spots ahead of them in the BCS and that’s too long of ways to jump when USC is beating up on the poor weaklings of the Pac 10.

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